2003年宏观形势分析与今年形势及政策走向预测

本文通过对2003～2004年国内宏观经济金融形势和运行特点进行的分析与预测,提出以下主要观点:2003年宏观经济在保持快速发展势头的同时也积累了许多问题:经济增长与社会发展不协调;投资需求增长与消费需求增长不协调;货币信贷增速过快;部分行业部分地区增长"过热",低水平重复建设抬头;就业压力进一步加大;城乡发展矛盾突出,贫富差距进一步加大等.在此基础上,本文认为,2004年宏观经济金融政策将注重保持连续性和稳定性,并在此基础上进行微调;宏观调控的重点是通过有效的微调遏制局部过热,实现经济社会统筹兼顾和协调发展.

Analysis of Macroeconomic Situation in 2003 and Forecast of the Economic Trend and Policy Orientation in 2004

Based on an analysis of China's macroeconomic and financial situation and performance characteristics in2003and a forecast for2004,the paper comes up with the following points:although macro economy saw a rapid growth in2003,but problems emerged accu-mulatively.These problems are represented by:unbalanced development of economy and society;unbalanced demand for investment and consumption;excessive growth of credit loans,overheating in some sectors and areas,resurging of low-level redundant construction,higher pressure from employment,prominent contradictions of development between cities and countryside and widening wealth gap between the poor and rich.Accordingly,the paper believes that work stress in2004will be to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic and financial policies and conduct fine-tuning.The objective of such macro control is to use effective fine-tuning to tame local sizzling economy and bring about an all-round and balanced development of economy and society.