中国信贷市场非均衡状况:估计与分析

本文借助于Burkett的双曲交易函数对1980～2003年中国信贷市场的非均衡状况进行估计,从而明确了中国信贷市场各年的非均衡状况(供大于求还是供不应求)与非均衡程度。结果发现:信贷需求者的意愿需求、供给者的意愿供给均经常大于实际供给。中国信贷市场的意愿供给数量主要取决于计划的经济增长率、当年通货膨胀率、储蓄存款余额年增长率。中国信贷市场的意愿需求数量主要取决于预算内基本建设投资增长率、固定资产投资增长率。

Non-Equilibrium in China's Credit Market: Estimation and Analysis

This paper makes an estimation of the non-equilibrium in China's credit market during the period from 1980~2003 with Burkett's hyperbolic function to ascertain the status and degree of non-equilibrium on a year basis (Whether supply is greater than demand or vice versa). It is found that desired demand and supply of credit are often greater than actual supply. The amount of desired supply is chiefly determined by: planned economic growth rate, annual inflation rate and annual increase rate of the balance in saving deposits; whereas the amount of desired demand is determined by investment growth rate of capital construction as well as by fixed assets within budget.