中国居民储蓄与股票市场之间的联动效应——理论分析与实证检验

从资产需求理论出发的理论分析、对我国现实情况进行的剖析,以及利用2001～2007年3月的最新数据对居民储蓄与股票市场之间联动关系进行的实证分析显示:随着经济的发展和资本市场的深化,我国居民的储蓄偏好和证券投资倾向正逐步发生变化;我国股市交易与居民储蓄存在联动效应,居民主动投资股票市场的积极性在增强,但两者之间的影响幅度还相对较小,这与我国居民储蓄存款的低利率弹性、股票市场的高风险特征以及股票市场的风险溢价波幅较大等有关.

Interaction Between China's Stock Market and Savings——A Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test

This paper examines China's reality according to the theory on demand for assets and studies empirically the interaction between savings and stock market based on the latest monthly data from 2001-March 2007. It is shown that: with vigorous development of economy and capital market,Chinese residents are changing their savings habit and equity investment preference and although stock trading and savings interact with each other when people are more willing to invest in stock market,their interaction is still minimal partly because of low rate elasticity and partly because of high risks and volatile risk premium in stock market.