我国金融发展与经济增长关系的区域差异分析——兼论分税制改革对金融发展与经济增长关系的影响

本文利用1979～2003年的省级面板数据,将我国分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了金融发展对经济增长的影响,结果表明:把国有商业银行贷款占GDP的比例作为金融发展的衡量指标对三大地区人均GDP均具有显著的正相关性,金融发展促进经济增长的理论在我国同样成立;但金融发展与实体经济部门之间均不存在良性互动的关系,其对经济增长的贡献仅仅停留在增加资本积累上,对资本配置效率的改善作用不大;1994年的分税制改革对金融发展促进经济增长的作用造成了显著的负面影响。因此,我国的金融体制改革需要将金融体制改革、国有企业改革、财税体制改革和政府体制改革纳入同一个分析框架中进行。

Studies on the Regional Difference of the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth in China——Comment on the Influence of the Tax Sharing Reform of the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Growth

This paper uses inter-provincial panel data from 1979 to 2003 to study the influence of financial development on economic growth in China divided into three areas:East China,Middle China and West China.It is found that the proportion of loans extended by state-owned commercial banks in GDP as an index of financial development has a strong positive effect on per-capita GDP and the theory that financial development promotes economic growth also applies to China.But there is no direct inter-relationship between financial development and economic growth.In fact,financial development contributes more to capital accumulation than to efficient capital allocation.Furthermore,it is found that tax sharing reform in 1994 undermines the role of financial development in boosting economy.Therefore,to reform our financial system,we need to put financial reform,state-run enterprise reform,tax reform and government system reform under one and same framework of analysis.