2004年国内宏观形势分析与2005年形势及政策走向

本文通过对2004～2005年国内宏观经济金融形势进行的分析和预测,提出以下主要观点:2004年宏观调控取得明显成效,但宏观经济运行中出现了值得关注的新问题,即固定资产投资反弹的压力很大;电力、煤炭盲目建设现象严重;新增贷款出现中长期化倾向;企业库存和应收账款持续增加蕴含着潜在的信贷风险;货币资金体外循环风险加大。在此基础上,本文认为,2005年经济金融政策的突出变化是财政政策由积极转为稳健,主基调是实行财政、货币“双稳健”政策。宏观调控目标主要有两点,一是防止盲目投资和低水平重复建设的反弹,防止通货膨胀;二是扩大消费需求,加强经济社会发展薄弱环节。

Domestic Macro Development in 2004 and Outlook and Policy Trend In 2005

After domestic macro economic and financial developments in 2004~2005 are analyzed and forecast, the following conclusions are drawn: although the year of 2004 saw marked achievements in macro-control, new concerns have loomed in macro-economic operations. That is to say that investment in fixed assets is rebounding; problem of blind construction of electric power and coal mines is still serious; new loans tend to become mid-term or long-term loans; enterprise inventory and receivables continue to grow, vulnerable to potential credit risks and external circulation of monetary capital leads to greater risks. Therefore, it is believed that a major change in economic and financial policy in 2005 will be a fiscal policy change from "proactive" to "prudent", the keynote being prudent fiscally and monetarily. There are two objectives to be achieved in macro-control: 1) guard against the rebound of blind investment and low-level redundant construction and dam inflation and 2) expand consumption and strengthen the weak link in economic and social development.