股票抵押贷款预期回收率比较分析

股票抵押贷款是一种风险较大的产品.股票价值和收益的高波动性造成抵押品价值的回收率不稳定,进而影响贷款预期回收率,使得银行经营风险加大.为了有效估算股票抵押贷款回收率,本文运用预期回收率模型,借助中国色诺芬股票数据库和美国CRSP股票数据库信息,比较分析不同市场情况下预期回收率的区别.分析发现中国市场由于近几年股票波动率加强,整体预期回收率较低,而美国则相反;预期回收率与抵押率、违约概率都成负相关关系,而且预期回收率对于抵押率的变化非常敏感;60%贷款抵押率的设定在美国市场是可行的,而中国市场合理抵押率是54%左右.

Comparative Analysis on the Expected Recovery Rate of Stock Collateral Loans

Stock collateral loan is a comparatively risky bank product.Because of the high volatility of stock price and stock return,the recovery rate of stock collaterals is unstable,which results in an unstable recovery rate of the stock collateral loan and aggravates commercial bank's operating risks.To accurately calculate the recovery rate of stock collateral loan,this paper uses an expected recovery rate model to reflect the changes of the expected recovery rate under different market conditions.The key point o...