基于Lee-Cater模型的养老保险个人账户缺口研究

鉴于个人账户计发月数未能体现持续的寿命延长,无论做实的个人账户还是处于空账状态的个人账户,个人账户的计发月数与实际支付月数的差异,都会使得实际支付远远超过个人账户实际或记账累积资金,同时账户资金的可继承性,将进一步扩大个人账户缺口。本文通过Lee-Ca-ter模型预测预期寿命的变化,研究死亡率改进对个人账户缺口的影响,以及死亡率和贴现率对个人账户缺口的共同作用。

Research on the Insufficiency of IRA with Lee-Cater Model

The divisor factor of IRA doesn′t reflect the continuous extension of life expectancy,therefore,the difference between the divisor factor and the actual payment time will lead to the big gap between the actual payment and the actual amount or the accumulated amount of individual account,no matter for the fully-funded individual account or the non-funded account.And the inheritability of IRA fund further widens the gap.With the Lee-Cater Mortality Forecasting model,the paper studied the effects of life expectancy extension on the insufficiency of IRA,and the combined impacts of mortality and discount rate on the balance of IRA.