财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡?——基于收支二维视角的分析

基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金的失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失;财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求;制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。

How Does Fiscal Decentralization Exacerbate the Imbalance of Pension Insurance Funds? An Analysis Based on the Perspective of Revenue and Expenditure

Fund imbalance is the dilemma faced amid the reform of pension system parameters at present.This paper constructed the explanatory framework of fund imbalance from the perspective of fiscal decentralization, and made an empirical test on its influencing effect and functioning mechanism.The research results show that the fiscal decentralization significantly increases the imbalance risk of the pension fund, and the result is still established after the endogenous and robust treatment.And the effect of the fiscal decentralization is mainly realized through the two mechanisms of the collection efficiency and early retirement.In particular, the fiscal decentralization induces the local government to relax the payment supervision, which undermines the pension insurance income;it also causes the local government to loosen the examination on retirement applications, so that the phenomenon of employee early retirement is more common, which increases the demand for pension fund payment;the institutional environment has a threshold effect on the two paths of fiscal decentralization: when the fund is relatively abundant, the dependence on financial subsidies is low and the overall statutory premium rate is high, the mechanism of fiscal decentralization is more prominent.This paper proved the influence of the macro-economic system on the operation of the pension fund, and deepened the understanding of the relationship between the decentralized system and the social pension insurance system.It offered some insight into the ongoing reform on the system in China.