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我国人身保险市场结构变化与预测分析
引用本文:刘超,陈秉正.我国人身保险市场结构变化与预测分析[J].保险研究,2011(9):88-96.
作者姓名:刘超  陈秉正
作者单位:清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084/北京航空航天大学数学与系统科学学院,北京100191;清华大学经济管理学院,北京,100084
基金项目:保监会项目《中国保险市场体系建设》资助
摘    要:虽然保险业经受了本次金融危机的考验,但是保险业可能成为系统性风险传导链条上的一环,因此,保险监管机构需要转变审慎监管方式,建立适合保险业的宏观审慎监管框架。在这个背景下,对中国人身保险市场结构现状有一个较为清晰和准确的认识就显得十分必要。研究发现:从全国范围来说,我国寿险市场主体数量较少,人身险市场集中度过高,市场结构为寡头垄断,但各地区的人身险市场结构又各有特点,经济发达地区人身险保险市场结构已经过渡到垄断竞争阶段。根据成分数据预测结果分析,在"十二五"期间,我国人身险的市场集中度继续呈下降趋势。

关 键 词:人身险  市场结构  集中度  成分数据

The Change of China′s Life Insurance Market Structure and Future Trend
Liu Chao,Chen Bing-zheng.The Change of China′s Life Insurance Market Structure and Future Trend[J].Insurance Studies,2011(9):88-96.
Authors:Liu Chao  Chen Bing-zheng
Institution:Liu Chao,Chen Bing-zheng
Abstract:Although the insurance industry has stood the test of the financial crisis,it may become one link of the systemic risk transmission chain,therefore,insurance regulators should adhere to prudent supervision methods and establish a macro regulation framework suitable for the insurance industry.Under this background,it is very necessary to get a clear and accurate understanding about the present situation of China′s life insurance market structure.This research revealed that the number of life insurance companies in China are limited with a high market concentration,and the life insurance market is characterized with an oligopoly structure,but the features of market structure differs by area.After analyzing the reason of high market concentration,we found that the main cause was the existence of administrative resources allocation in the insurance industry and high barriers for market entry and exit.According to the result of the compositional data projection,during the period of 12th Five-year Plan,the market concentration in China′s life insurance industry will continue to decline.
Keywords:life insurance  market structure  concentration  compositional data
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