Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries

This study investigates the linkage between speculative capital and business cycles in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore from 1981:Q1 to 2012:Q4. We use the multivariate Markov-switching intercept autoregressive heteroskedasticity vector autoregressive (MSIAH-VAR) model and observe that while speculative shocks during the tranquil period temporarily promoted Malaysia’s economic growth, they temporarily damaged economic growth in Thailand and Singapore. Moreover, speculative capital flows from abroad exacerbated economic volatility and damaged economic growth prospects for all these countries during the crisis period. Thus, it may be important for policymakers to take appropriate actions against the potential risk of economic instability and market volatility from speculative capital.