The generation of stock market cycles |
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Authors: | Steven E Bolten Robert A Weigand |
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Institution: | University of South Florida;University of Colorado at Colorado Springs |
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Abstract: | This paper demonstrates that the relation between stock market and business cycle dynamics can be conceptualized using a dividend discount model. The interaction of changes in earnings and interest rates throughout the economic cycle are shown to cause changes in the level of stock prices. This implies that monitoring and forecasting these factors can help explain and possibly predict stock price behavior over time. |
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Keywords: | business cycle forecasting stock prices |
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