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CDOs and the financial crisis: Credit ratings and fair premia
Institution:1. University of Technology, Sydney, Finance Discipline Group, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;2. Dipartimento di Matematica, Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy;3. Léonard de Vinci Pôle Universitaire, Finance Lab, Paris La Défense, France;4. Quanta Finanza S.r.l., Italy;5. University of Technology, Sydney, Finance Discipline Group and School of Mathematical Sciences, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;1. John Molson School of Business, Concordia University, 1455 De Maisonneuve Blvd. West, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada;2. Chinese Academy of Finance and Development, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 South College Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, PR China;1. Bar-Ilan University, Israel;2. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel;1. Finance Center Muenster, University of Muenster, Universitätsstr. 14-16, 48143 Münster, Germany;2. UBS AG, Group Risk Methodology, 8098 Zürich, Switzerland
Abstract:We study risk and return characteristics of CDOs using the market standard models. We find that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. Our results imply that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their central role in structured finance markets. This illustrates limitations of the rating methodologies that are solely based on real-world default probabilities or expected losses and do not capture risk premia. We also demonstrate that CDO tranches have large exposure to systematic risk and thus their ratings and prices are likely to decline substantially when credit conditions deteriorate.
Keywords:Collateralized debt obligations  Credit ratings  Fair premia  Structured finance  Rating agencies  Financial crisis
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