待遇机制调整、生育政策与养老金财务状况

本文建立精算模型,以城镇职工养老金为例,研究养老金增速与养老保险基金的可持续性,以及生育政策和待遇机制与改善养老保险基金财务状况的问题。根据现实可行参数进行模拟发现:(1)降低表征为养老金待遇的养老金增速有助于改善养老金财务状况,推迟赤字时点的到来;如果养老金增速为0,2050年前养老保险基金不会出现赤字。(2)虽然高生育情景下,2041年及以后养老金财务状况出现较大改善,但是在2041年以前状况会恶化;如果在进行生育政策调整的同时改变养老金待遇机制,高生育情景下养老金财务状况改善的起始时点提前到2021年,同时降低了短期的负面影响。政策启示在于,要根据经济增速以及生育政策相应调整养老金的待遇机制,这有助于养老保险基金的可持续,同时也使得生育政策更有效地改善养老金财务状况,尤其在短期。

Adjustment of Treatment Mechanism,Fertility policy and Pension Status

In the critical period of achieving "two one-hundred-year goals" in China, taking the urban employee pension as an example, this paper attempts to answer the question, how pension growth can better maintain pension sustainability by establishing an actuarial model. In addition, it also answers how to match the fertility policy and the pension benefit mechanism to make the fertility policy more effective. The study finds that:(1) reducing the growth rate of pensions will help improve the financial status of pensions and delay the arrival of deficits;if the growth rate of pensions is 0, the pension funds will not have a deficit before 2050.(2) The high birth rate will greatly improve the financial status of pensions in 2041, but will worsen the financial status of pensions before 2041;if the adjustment of the fertility policy comes along with pension mechanism adjustment, the improvement of status of pension wealth will be advanced to 2021, while reducing the short-term negative impact on pensions. The significance of the study is that it is necessary to adjust the pension mechanism according to the economic growth rate and the fertility policy, which contributes to the sustainability of the pension fund, and also makes the fertility policy more effective in improving the financial status of the pension, especially in the short term.