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人民币汇率变动对货币替代的影响分析
引用本文:张彬,张良强.人民币汇率变动对货币替代的影响分析[J].上海金融学院学报,2012(4):64-72.
作者姓名:张彬  张良强
作者单位:1. 福建师范大学协和学院,福建福州,350108
2. 福州大学软科学研究所,福建福州,350002
摘    要:自2005年起人民币兑美元累计升幅已超过20%,2012年4月5日人民币中间报价6.3102再创新高。本文根据2008年以来的季度数据测算出人民币的货币替代率.分析中国货币替代程度及降低原因,同时结合Eviews5.0软件。就人民币汇率变动对货币替代现象进行计量分析。结果表明,长期内人民币增值会导致货币替代现象减少。但由于人们判断并做出一个理性决定时需要一个思考过程,且我国目前汇率很大程度上仍受货币当局控制。人们选择决定就会带有一定的滞后性,所以短期内人民币汇率变动对货币替代现象影响不会非常明显。

关 键 词:人民币汇率  货币替代  协整分析

The Analysis of the Impacts of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Currency Substitution
Zhang Bin,Zhang Liangqiang.The Analysis of the Impacts of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Currency Substitution[J].Journal of Shanhai Finance University,2012(4):64-72.
Authors:Zhang Bin  Zhang Liangqiang
Institution:Zhang Bin,Zhang Liangqiang
Abstract:Since 2005,RMB’s exchange rate against US dollar has risen more than 20%.In April 5 2012,the RMB’s middle exchange rate was 6.3102,reaching a new historical high.In this paper,the authors use the quarterly data from 2008 to estimate RMB’s currency substitution rate,and analyze the Chinese currency substitution degree and the reason for its reduction.The results of the study show that,in the long term,the RMB’s appreciation leads to the reduction of its currency substitution;while in the short term,because it takes time to make rational decisions and the RMB exchange rate in China is controlled by the monetary authorities,there are certain lags in people’s decisions.So,in the short term,RMB exchange rate on currency substitution is not obvious.
Keywords:The RMB's Exchange Rate  Currency Substitution  Cointegration Analysis
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