人民币双边实际汇率与中国对美出口的实证研究

本文通过建立人民币双边实际汇率与中国对美出口的分析模型,运用协整分析、误差修正模型和脉冲响应函数进行实证研究。结果表明:期望通过人民币升值来解决中美贸易失衡问题的愿望很难有效实现,近年来中国对美出口的大幅增长是与美国自身经济发展的需求有较大关联的,而且这种需求有逐渐增强的趋势;短期内,对美出口的增长远胜于通过人民币升值所期望减少的出口;美国国民收入水平有拉动人民币升值的潜在作用。

Empirical Study on RMB's Real Bilateral Exchange Rate and Exports from China to America

Establishing the model of real bilateral exchange rate of RMB and China's exports to the United States,the effect is examined by co-integration analysis,error correction model and impulse response function.The results show that it is very difficult to hope resolving the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance in the effective realization of the aspirations in recent years through the appreciation of the RMB,China's exports to the United States and the United States substantially increasing its demand for economic ...