对“钱荒”问题的一个冷思考——基于货币流动性的角度

对于中国出现的“钱荒”现象,学者大都从国际市场影响、外汇管理、利率杠杆等因素来分析.本文从货币流动性的角度探讨了“M2/GDP”较高的水平以及并没有出现拐点的迹象,从而否定了“缺钱”的观点；至于宽松的货币政策,快速增长的“M2/GDP”对消费、居民储蓄产生的影响进行了实证分析,得出大量增加M2值从而刺激经济转嫁改革成本的方式有着很小的边际效益,反而加剧了流动性陷阱的出现,使货币流通性不足,从而从不同渠道导致了“钱荒”的出现.

Sober Thought on "Money Shortage"——From the Perspective of Monetary Liquidity

For ＂money shortage＂ phenomenon lately in China, most of scholars analyze the factors such as international market, interest rate, foreign exchange management lever. This paper denies the ＂money shortage＂ from the perspective of monetary liquidity because of high M2/GDP ratio and no evidence of turning points. empirical analysis about the impact of rapid growth of the M2/GDP on consumption, savings has been conducted. The results show that a massive increase of M2 to stimulate the economy and cut the reform costs has little marginal benefit, which exacerbates the emergence of a liquidity trap, makes insufficient monetary liquidity, and finally led to the ＂money shortage＂ through various channels.