中国房地产价格波动与货币政策：一个实证研究

本文采用家庭还款额的支付性指数HAI来测算中国房地产价格的合理性，发现中国房地产市场自1998年以来就存在严重的泡沫；通过对央行货币政策操作目标与房地产价格波动做回归分析，得出央行货币政策对房地产价格波动作出显著响应；建立结构向量自回归模型研究房地产价格波动在给定货币政策准则下对产出缺口和价格稳定的）中击，得出近年来房地产价格波动对价格稳定冲击比较大，对产出冲击比较小的结论；最后提出货币当局应针对房地产价格波动制定最优货币政策准则。

Chinese Real Estate Price Fluctuations and Monetary Policy:An Empirical Study

This article uses the affordability index HAI of family mortgage repayment to survey the rationality of Chinese real estate price, discovered China real estate market had serious bubble since 1998; Through makes the regression analysis on the operation goal of central bank monetary policy and the real estate price fluctuations, discovered that the central bank monetary policy obviously makes the response to the real estate price fluctuations; This article establishes the structure vector regression model, studied the impact of real estate price fluctuations to the deliver gap and the price stabilization under the given monetary policy criterion, the conclusion is： impact of the real estate price fluctuations to price stabilization was big in recent years, to delivered was small. Finally, proposed that the currency authority should formulate superior monetary policy criterion aim at the real estate price fluctuations.