中国经济波动的产出和通胀效应 ——基于供求冲击相关的SVAR模型分析

本文结合产出缺口-通胀形式的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线），构建了产出缺口和通 胀率的SVAR模型，并将识别结果同B-Q约束条件下的识别结果进行比较，以此来探究我国近 三十多年来宏观经济系统中需求冲击和供给冲击对产出和通胀动态的效应。主要得出以下结 论：第一，供求冲击之间高度相关；第二，需求冲击是我国通胀波动的决定性因素，并且存在 持久稳定的效应。第三，供给冲击是我国经济增长的绝对主导力量。第四，我国存在相对陡峭 的菲利普斯曲线（AS曲线）。第五，产出缺口与同比CPI对我国经济状况的拟合效果最好。

Output and Inflation Effects of China's Economic Fluctuations -Analysis of SVAR Model Based on Supply and Demand Shocks

In this paper, the SVAR model of output gap and inflation rate is constructed by combining the Phillips curve (AS curve) of output gap and inflation, and the recognition result is compared with that under BQ constraint condition, in order to explore the effects of demand shock and supply shock on output and inflation dynamics in macroeconomic systems over the past 30 years. The main conclusions are as follows: First, supply and demand shocks are highly correlated. Second, the demand shock is the decisive factor of China''s inflationary fluctuations, and there is a lasting and stable effect. Third, supply shock is the absolute dominance of China''s economic growth. Fourth, there is a relatively steep Phillips curve (AS curve) in our country. Fifth, the best fitted model for China''s economic situation is output gap and Monthly year-on-year CPI .