中国金融周期:基于信贷配给视角

本文首先基于我国企业层面的数据分析当前我国的信贷配给规则，其次通过理论和实证的方法厘清信贷配给规则与金融周期的内生机制，再次利用信贷配给规则划分我国金融周期，对当前周期进行分析，最后基于金融经济平稳运行的角度，提出完善信贷配给规则的对策建议。本文的主要研究结论如下:一是国有企业和大型企业等经济主体更容易获得银行贷款，反映出当前信贷配给规则的主要特征；二是当前配给规则会对银行不良贷款产生显著的负面影响效应；三是基于信贷配给规则的金融周期仍在相对高位运行，当前信贷配给规则还有深度调整的必要性。

China's Financial cycle:From the perspective of credit rationing

This paper first analyzes the current credit allocation rules in China based on the data of China''s enterprise level. Secondly, it clarifies the endogenous mechanism of credit rationing rules and financial cycle through theoretical and empirical methods. We use the credit rationing rules to divide china''s financial cycles analyzing the current cycle. And finally put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the credit rationing rules based on the smooth operation of the financial economy. The main conclusions of this paper: State-owned enterprises and large enterprises have easier access to bank loans, reflecting the main features of the current credit rationing rules; The current rationing rules have a significant negative impact on bank''s non-performing loans; The financial cycle based on credit rationing rule is still at relatively high peak, which means the current credit rationing rules need to be adjusted.