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STOCK INDEX FUTURES HEDGING: HEDGE RATIO ESTIMATION, DURATION EFFECTS, EXPIRATION EFFECTS AND HEDGE RATIO STABILITY
Authors:Phil Holmes
Abstract:This paper examines hedging effectiveness for the FTSE-100 Stock Index futures contract from 1984 to 1992. It investigates the appropriate econometric technique to use in estimating minimum variance hedge ratios by undertaking estimations using OLS, an ECM and GARCH. Simple OLS outperforms more complex econometric techniques. Additionally, the paper examines the impact ofhedge duration and time to expiration on estimated hedge ratios and hedge ratio stability over time. It is shown that hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness increase with hedge duration, hedge ratios approach unity as expiration approaches and while hedge ratios vary over time they are stationary.
Keywords:hedging  futures  stock index  GARCH  duration effects
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