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中国进口贸易与经济增长——基于格兰杰因果关系的实证研究
引用本文:关嘉麟.中国进口贸易与经济增长——基于格兰杰因果关系的实证研究[J].税务与经济,2012(1):50-53.
作者姓名:关嘉麟
作者单位:吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012/吉林财经大学国际经济贸易学院,吉林长春130117
摘    要:利用1978~2009年间的数据,通过建立误差修正模型,分别检验中国进口与经济增长的短期和长期因果关系。实证结果显示,进口贸易与中国经济增长具有双向的Granger因果关系,进口对经济增长的长期促进作用要比短期的促进作用更显著。这一结果支持我国十二五规划中将长期依赖出口导向型贸易发展战略调整为进口、出口平衡发展的贸易战略。

关 键 词:中国  进口贸易  经济增长  Granger因果关系检验

China's Import Trade and Economic Growth——Based on Empirical Research of Granger Causality
Guan Jia-lin.China's Import Trade and Economic Growth——Based on Empirical Research of Granger Causality[J].Taxation and Economy,2012(1):50-53.
Authors:Guan Jia-lin
Institution:Guan Jia-lin1,2(1.College of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;2.School of International Economics and Trade,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 1300117,China)
Abstract:Based on the data from 1978 to 2009,a research,which aims at testing the short-term and long-term causal relationship of China′s import trade and economic growth is conducted by setting up Error Correction Model.The result shows that import trade and economic growth has bidirectional causality.Long-term acceleration of import is more significant than its short-term acceleration.This result proves that trade development strategy should be adjusted from export-oriented trade strategy to the strategy of balancing the import and export trade in China 12th Five-Year Plan.
Keywords:China  import trade  economic growth  Granger Causality
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