资本市场融资、经济增长与产业结构升级——基于中国省际面板数据的检验

本文利用扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析我国金融深化的背景下,利用多层次资本市场的不同渠道资本融资、经济增长以及产业结构升级之间的动态关系。文章利用29个省、市、自治区2006~2010年的面板数据,实证结果发现:多层次资本市场融资对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,但债券市场与FDI对经济增长的作用较弱。总量促进经济增长的背后,不同的融资渠道之间的相互作用不尽相同:银行信贷与债券对股票市场筹资存在显著的"溢出效应",FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的"挤出效应",说明股票市场融资可以替代FDI在实体经济中的作用。随后对多层次资本市场与产业结构转型关系的数据进行实证。研究发现:股票融资、债券融资在一定程度上推动了中国的经济结构转型,但FDI与结构转型负相关,银行信贷与经济转型的关系不显著。

Multi-level Capital Market,Economic Growth and the Industrial Structure Upgrading:Based on the Test of China’s Provincial Panel Data

In this paper,using an extended Cobb-Douglas production function,we analyze the dynamic relationship between various channels of capital accumulation in multi-level capital market and economic growth and industrial restructuring in the background of China’s further financial deepening.Using the panel data of 29 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2006 to 2010,we found that multi-level capital market financing has a significant promoting effect to economic growth but the influence of bond market and FDI on economic growth is weak.Interaction between different financing sources is not the same:bank credit and bond financing have a significant "spillover effect" with the stock market,while FDI has a significant "crowding out" effect.It indicates that stock market financing can replace the role of FDI in the real economy.The relationship between multi-level capital market and industrial restructuring shows that stock market financing and bond financing have promoted economic restructuring,while FDI is significantly negative correlated,and the bank credit is not significant.