对个人住房开征物业税的几个判断及效应预测

对个人住房开征物业税是关乎国计民生的大事。本文认为,开征物业税之前需要进一步理顺中央与地方的财政关系;开征后的物业税收入要用于满足地方公共财政支出的需要;物业税开征后的征管质量取决于对个人住房信息的掌握和政府各部门间的横向合作。物业税开征与地区房地产价格弱相关,与全国房地产价格无关;与股市题材炒作相关,与资本市场发育无关;与当地居民收入和福利相关,与辖区外居民效用无关。

Some Fundamental Judgments and Effect Pre-estimates about Starting to Levy Real Estate Tax on Private Houses in China

Starting to levy real estate tax on private houses is crucial to national economy and people's livelihood. The paper sug-gests that the relationship between central and local finance should be further straightened out before starting to levy real estate tax; the revenue from real estate tax should be used for local fiscal ex-penditures after the tax is levied; the administrative performance of real estate tax will be decided by grasping of information of pri-vate houses and cooperation among different government sectors. According to the pre-estimates of this paper, levying real estate tax is weakly correlated with local real estate price but unrelated to general real estate price in China; possibly correlated with capital market fluctuations in China but unrelated to capital market development; strongly correlated with local residents' income and welfare but unrelated to residents outside the districts.