首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响
引用本文:彭博.人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响[J].中国证券期货,2012(10):55-57.
作者姓名:彭博
作者单位:东南大学经济管理学院,江苏 南京 210096
摘    要:改革开放以来,我国凭借国内生产的成本优势在国际贸易中获取了大量利益。出口刺激了经济的快速增长,然而持续顺差带来的本币升值问题却成为我国经济发展中的两难。虽然汇率升值可能造成出口部门竞争力下降,但是,理论上讲,汇率的升值也能够缓解国内通货膨胀的压力,并且能够降低进口原材料价格,从而降低国内的生产成本。然而,自汇改以来,人民币的升值并没有减缓通胀压力,相反的,升值一直伴随着物价的上涨,于此同时,人民币汇率、国内资产价格和物价之间的联动越来越明显。本文从人民币汇率预期、资产价格和物价的关系入手,研究人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响。结果表明,人民币升值预期会导致我国国内生产成本的上涨,即成本优势的丧失。

关 键 词:人民币汇率预期  成本优势  资产价格  通货膨胀

Effect of Expected RMB Exchange Rate on China’s Production Costs
Abstract:Since the reform and opening,China’s cost advantage has led to great success in international trade.Exports stimulated the rapid economic growth,while continued surplus was bringing to the currency appreciation which is now a dilemma in China’s economic development.Although appreciation may make the export sector less competitive,but,theoretically,it can also ease the inflationary pressures,and can reduce the prices of imported raw materials,thus reducing domestic production costs.However,since 2005,the RMB’s appreciation has not led to the ease of the in? ationary pressures,on the contrary,it has been accompanied by price increases.Meanwhile,the linkage among the RMB exchange rate,domestic asset prices and the prices of consumer and producer has been more and more obvious.Started by the relation between expected RMB exchange rate and prices,this paper examines the effect of expected RMB exchange rate on China’s production costs.The empirical result shows that the expected appreciation of RMB has led to the increase in production costs,in another word,the loss of cost advantage in China.
Keywords:Expect Exchange Rate of RMB  Cost Advantage  Asset price  Inflation
本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录!
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号