美国财政和货币政策的困境与出路

本文分析了美国财政和货币政策的局限和困境,并探讨了其政策出路。本文突破了财政政策对私有部门挤出效应的传统分析方法,采用宽松货币和财政政策的交互作用,从更广泛视角分析政府政策的挤出效应;以个人和企业资产负债表在不同时期的状态及调整为框架,并突破货币政策分析将利息作为负债成本的传统方法,将利息也作为资产收益评估政策效果;运用这一框架,并采用"核心GDP"作为经济增长质量和可持续性的指标,分析美国最近财政和货币政策的局限和出路。

Research on the U.S.Fiscal and Monetary Policies:the Difficulties and Solutions

This article analyses the restrictions and difficulties of the U.S.fiscal and monetary policies,and try to find the solutions as well.The main features and developments of the paper are as followed: to analyze the crowding-out effects of the fiscal policy based on a broader view;to utilize the interactive functions between the fiscal and monetary policies instead of the fiscal policy alone;to evaluate the monetary policy based on the situations of private sectors’balance sheet in different cycles;to take the interest arte not only as a cost of debt but also a yield of asset;to analyze the restrictions and solutions of the current fiscal and monetary policies based on this new framework,as well as a new indicator of the sustainability of economic growth-"core GDP".