外汇储备的积极管理:新加坡、挪威的经验与启示

一定规模的外汇储备有助于保持汇率的稳定,保证正常的进口和偿债支出,并能有效应对外部冲击导致的金融风险。但是,中国当前的外汇储备规模已经远远超过了最优规模。本文试图借鉴新加坡和挪威等国的经验,介绍外汇储备的积极管理。新加坡和挪威的经验表明,外汇储备的积极管理可以提高本国储备资产的长期购买力、提升本国的国际竞争力并消除外汇储备增加对宏观政策自主性的影响。在消极外汇储备管理的模式下,中国优化外汇储备的货币结构和资产结构存在一定的局限性。本文对建立中国的外汇储备积极管理体制提出了建议并指出值得注意的若干问题。

Positive Management of Foreign Exchange Reserves: Experience from Singapore and Norway

Sufficient foreign exchange reserves help to stabilize foreign exchange rate, ensure payment for import and debt, and reduce vulnerability to financial crises. However, China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves way above the optimal level. Singapore and Norway' s experience show that positive management of foreign exchange reserve can maintain purchase power of their foreign exchange reserve over a long period of time, improve international competitiveness and reduce negative impacts on autonomy of macroeconomic policies. We also point out the limitation and problems of the current passive paradigm of foreign exchange reserves management. This paper concludes with suggestions on the future active management regime and some problems that merit special attention.