银行体系、技术冲击与中国宏观经济波动

本文运用新凯恩斯的DSGE模型研究金融效率、经济结构变化对技术冲击效应的影响。研究结果印证了传统经济周期理论的核心观点,即技术进步不仅可以刺激产出、消费和投资,还可以降低社会总体价格水平,而金融中介效率、资本收入份额和折旧率的高低都不会影响技术冲击的传导路径。同时,本文的研究还显示,作为金融中介的银行体系效率越高,技术冲击对宏观经济波动的影响越小。该结论意味着,在当前阶段我国应着力提高国内金融体系的效率,以保证宏观经济的平稳健康运行。

Research on the Relations between and among the Technology Shock,Financial Efficiency and Economic Fluctuation

Technology shock is the main source of economic fluctuation in RBC theory,but few researchers pay attention to the influencing factors of the effects of technology shock.This paper uses a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(DSGE)model to analyze the influences of financial efficiency and economic structure on technology shock effects.The results are as follows:(1)technological progress can not only stimulate output,consumption and investment,but also reduce the inflation;(2)financial efficiency,the share of capital and the depreciation rate do not change the transmission mechanism of technology shock;(3)the improvement of financial efficiency will reduce the impact of technology shocks on macro economy;(4)the lower the share of capital income,the more increase of output,consumption,investment and the more decrease of the overall price level caused by technological progress;(5)the lower the depreciation rate,the larger volatility of investment and the smoother the output,consumption,employment and inflation changes caused by technology shock.