从新斯旺模型看我国利率与汇率政策的组合

本文介绍了一个考虑了资本流动时竞争效应与平衡表效应的新斯旺模型。该模型从资产市场与产品市场的角度描述经济的内外部均衡,说明了如何通过利率与汇率政策来管理危机或经济失衡。通过分析我国的新斯旺模型,本研究发现具有竞争效应小于平衡表效应的特征。在当前我国面临内外部失衡的状况下,模型说明我国应采取利率上调与人民币升值的“双升”的政策组合。当然针对复杂的经济矛盾还需要配合其他政策。

Combination of Interest Policy and Foreign Exchange Policy-Perspective from New Swan Model

This paper proposed a new Swan model, which takes such effects as capital mobility and balance sheet channel into consideration. The new Swan model describes the internal balance and external balance of an economy by investigating the asset market and goods market. And with this model, a method to control management crisis and economical imbalance by interest rate and exchange rate policies is discussed. It showed that when we apply this model to China, the competition effect is weaker than the balance sheet channel. And we can further prove that, under the internal and external imbalanced situation, like what happened in China, we should take policies such as interest rate hike, currency appreciation and other complementary policies.