全球价值链分工对全球失衡的影响研究--基于全球生产分解模型下GVC参与方式的视角

本文基于全球生产分解模型,实证检验了全球价值链分工对全球失衡的影响。研究发现,参与全球价值链分工会对经常账户产生影响,最终导致全球失衡,且采用上游供给的前向参与对全球失衡存在正向作用,而采取下游需求的后向参与对全球失衡具有负向作用,即不同参与方式对全球失衡具有差异化影响。本文还发现,全球价值链分工参与深浅复杂程度差异、产业类型参与差别对全球失衡均具有差别化影响。本研究为缓解中美贸易摩擦等国家间不必要贸易争端提供有益的理论探索。

The Impact of Global Value Chain Division on Global Imbalances--From the Perspective of GVC Participation Based on Global Production Decomposition Model

Global imbalance is an important feature in the world, which is also one of the hottest topics among academic and policy makers. The reduction of trade cost has promoted economic and trade exchanges among countries, and the growing maturity and improvement of the new international division system has a profound impact on the world. The new trend of global international division has fundamentally changed the traditional mode of production and trade. Based on the global production decomposition model and the international input-output database, this paper explores the impact of global value chain division on global imbalances from the perspectives of supply and demand.Participation in the global value chain division has an impact on the current account, which eventually leads to global imbalances. Moreover, different ways of participation in the global value chain have different effects on global imbalances.Specifically, the participation of upstream supply has a positive effect on global imbalances, while the participation of downstream demand has a negative effect on global imbalances. In addition, this paper also finds that the differences in the depth and complexity of global value chain division participation, and the differences in industrial type participation have different impacts on global imbalances.This paper discusses the global imbalances from the perspective of global value chain, which enriches the research on the global imbalances of international division.