中国清末民初银本位下的汇率浮动:影响和启示

清末民初,银本位下的中国货币对大多数金本位国家的货币汇率自由浮动。浮动汇率并非影响中国国际收支和宏观经济的主要因素:在汇率大体持续贬值情况下,中国贸易逆差不断增大;汇率贬值有利于刺激外商直接投资和侨汇流入,弥补贸易逆差。关键问题是中国货币状况乃至整体经济活动受制于白银数量,容易大起大落。当前中国汇率弹性有待提高,对货币调控造成较大制约。我国汇率浮动早已有之,不必过于担心,中国完全具备主动加快汇率改革的条件。

China's exchange rate floating from 1870s to mid-1930s:Impacts and implications

From 1870s to mid-1930s,China was virtually under the silver standard and its exchange rate floated against other major currencies under gold standard.The floating exchange rate was not a decisive factor in China's balance of payments and macroeconomic development.The more critical issue was that China's monetary conditions and overall economic activities were constrained by the availability of silver and the absence of monetary autonomy,which resulted in big economic fluctuations.Historically China didn't ...