资本流入、外汇储备非均衡增长对我国外汇政策的影响

本文解释了外汇储备非均衡的概念,采用1999年1月～2005年6月的月度数据,对我国外汇储备增长的原因作协整分析,测算人民币升值预期下流入我国的非FDI 资本数额,证明过度资本流入引起我国外汇储备的非均衡增长。在此基础上,运用成本- 收益分析指出我国目前外汇储备的持有水平虽然没有超出适度区间,但已明显偏高,进而提出外汇储备管理的“适度性”、“合理性”和“稳定性”原则。

Effect of Capital Inflow, Dis-equilibrium Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves on China's Foreign Exchange Policy

This paper depicts the concept of foreign exchange reserve dis-equilibrium, then makes a conintegration test of the factors that caused the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, and estimates the amount of non-FDI capital inflow under the anticipation of the RMB appreciation. The results show that excess capital inflow is the main reason of foreign exchange reserves accumulation. It concludes that the level of China' s foreign exchange reserves is at the higher end of reasonable range, some measures should be taken.