新兴市场国家外汇储备适度规模研究

本文基于外汇储备的职能划分外汇储备的需求层次,建立了外汇储备适度规模测算模型,选取了中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非五个金砖国家作为新兴市场国家的典型代表,力图通过研究这五个金砖国家的外汇储备适度规模问题,从这一新角度界定新兴市场国家外汇储备适度规模区间,为新兴市场国家外汇储备管理提供有益的参考。实证研究中,通过测算金砖国家2000-2010年的外汇储备适度规模区间,我们发现以"金砖国家"中国、俄罗斯、巴西为代表的一些新兴市场国家的外汇储备逐渐偏离适度外汇规模上限;同时以南非为代表的一部分新兴市场国家,外汇储备水平一直处于不足的状态;而印度良好的外汇储备管理政策使得其外汇储备量一直保持在适度规模区间内。最后,针对各个新兴市场国家外汇储备处于的不同状态,我们提出了相应的政策建议。

The Optimal Level of Foreign Currency Reserves for Emerging Market Countries

This paper divides the foreign currency reserves into the hierarchy of needs based on the different functions of the foreign currency reserves and builds a measuring model for an optimal level of foreign currency reserves of BRICS which are regarded as the typical representatives of emerging market countries.We try to conduct studies on the moderate size of the foreign currency reserves of the five countries,define the optimal level of the foreign currency reserves of the emerging market countries and provide the beneficial reference to these countries.By measuring the optimal level of foreign currency reserves in BRICS from 2000 to 2010,we found that in countries like China,Russia,Brazil,as a representative of some of the emerging market countries,foreign currency reserves gradually exceeded the upper limit of the optimal level.At the same time,in South Africa,as a representative of the part of the emerging market countries,foreign currency reserves level was in the state of shortage.India’s foreign currency reserves management policy made its foreign currency reserves stay within an appropriate scale range.In the end,we put forward some policy suggestions in view of different states of foreign currency reserves in emerging market countries.