基于宏观资产负债表的居民债务问题及其风险研究

本文从宏观资产负债表的编制出发,对比世界主要经济体的居民债务演变,有效度量中国居民部门的债务杠杆水平。通过宏观部门经济间的关联,构造基于存量-流量一致的部门结构化均衡模型,剖析居民部门债务风险的传导机制,分析货币、财政和地产政策在居民债务风险防范中的作用。结果表明:中国居民部门金融资产负债率和偿债比例偏高,偿债压力逐步加大。但适中的资产负债率和较高的潜在经济增速为我国居民部门债务风险的化解提供了足够的空间。紧缩性货币政策有利于居民部门去杠杆化,但由此引发的消费减速和经济下行将导致企业和政府部门债务攀升;减税较政府直接支出更能激发消费内需、降低居民和企业债务杠杆,同时,长期经济的好转利于政府债务风险稳定。紧缩性地产政策虽然有助于长期经济结构的调整,但需防范短期经济下滑。

Research on Household Debt and Risk Based on Macro Balance Sheet

Starting from the compilation of the macro balance sheet, this paper compares the evolution of household debt in the major economies of the world, and effectively measures the leverage level and debt risk of China’s household sector. Through the relationship between macro-sector economies, this paper constructs a structured equilibrium model based on Stock-Flow consistency model, analysing the risk exposure and transmission mechanism of residential sector, and analysing the role of monetary, fiscal and real estate policies in the prevention of household debt risk.The results show that the ratio of financial assets to liabilities and the proportion of debt repayment in China’s household sector are on the high side, while the pressure of debt repayment is gradually increasing. However, moderate asset-liability ratio and high potential economic growth rate also provide enough space for the resolution of debt risk household sector.The tightening monetary policy is conducive to the de-leveraging of household sector, but the slowdown in consumption and economic downturn will lead to the rising debt of enterprises and government departments. Tax reduction can stimulate domestic consumption, reduce the debt leverage of households and enterprises more than direct government expenditure, the improvement of long-term economy is also conducive to the stability of government debt risk. Although tightening property policy is conducive to long-term economic restructuring, it’s still necessary to guard against short-term economic downturn.