金融发展、汇改最优次序与长期经济增长--基于118个经济体的面板模型的分析

本文构建由金融发展、资本开放、汇率制度与产出增长组成的理论模型,选取世界上118个经济体1972-2016年的宏观数据,综合运用动态面板、面板门槛与面板IV模型进行实证分析。本文得出主要结论为:第一,在汇率制度弹性对长期经济增长的边际影响中,金融发展水平呈显著为正的调节效应;第二,对于金融发展水平较高的国家,汇率制度弹性在资本项目开放度与长期经济增长之间存在显著正向的调节效应;第三,在金融发展水平较高时,对外贸易开放度在汇率制度弹性与长期经济增长之间存在显著为正的中介效应。借鉴历史发展经验,本文归纳出"先发展国内金融市场,再开放浮动汇率,最后加强资本开放"的汇改最优次序,为我国克服汇率制度改革难点、推进资本项目开放、维持经济基本面稳定增长提出合理化政策建议。

Financial Development,Priorities of Exchange Rate Regime Reform and Long-Term Economic Growth--Analysis of Panel Model Based on 118 Economies

At present, there are many difficulties in the reform of China’s exchange rate system. Based on the early development experience of some countries in the world, if the exchange rate fluctuates excessively, it may reduce the cash value of enterprises, hinder the industrial upgrading, and affect the growth of economic fundamentals. With the premise of maintaining the growth trend of economic fundamentals, when can China fully liberalize the floating exchange rate system?What is the priority of opening floating exchange rate system and opening capital account?All these are the important issues that need to be solved in the process of exchange rate system reform.In order to answer these questions, this paper constructs a theoretical model composed of financial development, capital opening, exchange rate system and output growth, selects the macro data of 118 economies in the world from 1972 to 2016,uses the dynamic panel, panel threshold and panel IV model to analyze the moderator role of financial development level between exchange rate system flexibility and long-term economic growth, and carries on further analysis.The main conclusions are as followed. Firstly, in the marginal effect from exchange rate regime elasticity to long-term economic growth, the level of financial development shows a significant positive regulatory effect;Secondly, for countries with higher level of financial development, the elasticity of exchange rate regime has a significant positive regulatory effect between capital openness and long-term economic growth;Thirdly, when the level of financial development is high, it has a significant positive regulatory effect on long-term economic growth. Foreign trade openness has a significant positive mediating effect between exchange rate system elasticity and long-term economic growth.According to the above conclusions, this paper sums up the priorities of exchange rate system reform as" developing financial market first, opening floating exchange rate regime second, and strengthening capital openness eventually",which provides reasonable policy suggestions for China to overcome the difficulties of exchange rate regime reform, promote capital account opening, and maintain stable growth of economic fundamentals.