非传统货币政策的退出指标和时机选择

应对金融危机的非传统货币政策实施以来,其退出问题日益成为国际关注的焦点。本文从货币政策传导机制理论出发,分析了危机状态下传统货币政策传导如何受阻,非传统货币政策如何影响受阻环节的市场因素来修复传导机制。本文以此为依据,构建了选择非传统货币政策退出时机的指标体系,针对不同操作手段、操作目标选取相应的金融市场指标和宏观经济指标。在此基础上本文分析了这些指标在政策实施前后的表现,并探讨美国、英国和欧元区国家等主要发达经济体非传统货币政策退出的时机选择。

Indicators and Timing of Exiting from Unconventional Monetary Policies

In response to the financial crisis,the central banks of many advanced economies have adopted unconventional monetary policies.As to how to decide on the timing of exiting from these intervention measures,the paper finds the identifying indicators by conducting theoretical analysis on monetary policy transmission mechanism,which is blocked under traditional monetary policy framework in crisis time and is repaired by affecting the blocking factors with unconventional monetary measures.The indicators include financial market indicators and macroeconomic indicators regarding different unconventional tools respectively.Then we apply the indicators to explore the exit strategies in major developed economies including the United States,the United Kingdom and other major economies in the Euro zone.