人民币汇率制度改革评述

本文从“退出战略”角度评析2005年7月21日人民币汇率制度改革,分析了盯住篮子货币与盯住单一美元在稳定汇率方面的不同操作策略。然后,从逻辑上推出目前所实行“参考”篮子货币的内涵及在当前汇率制度下,央行可能存在的操作策略。最后利用实证的方法验证了在现有的货币篮子中,美元的权重仍占到95%以上,欧元和日元的比重较小。文章因此认为,短期内,我国的汇率制度仍是“参考美元为主的软盯住的汇率制度(Defacto)”,还没有真正退出,并分析了没有真正退出的原因。

Comments on Reform of RMB Exchange Rate Regime

This paper first analyzes the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in July, 2005 from the point of the theory of "Exit Strategy", then we explain the operational differences between pegging to US dollar and pegging to monetary basket in order to stabilize the exchange rate. After that, bases on the declaration about the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime, we have deduced the connotation of the current exchange rate regime and the possible operative strategies under the current exchange rate regime. Eventually, we conclude that in the current monetary basket, USD weight will be over 95%, and the weight of EUR and YEN will be small. Thus we maintain that in the short run, our exchange rate regime will still be de facto"soft peg exchange rate regime", and that our exchange rate didn't exit in actuality, then we give an explanation for not exiting.