中国国际收支余额变化与宏观经济研究

本文研究了国际收支从10%盈余到基本平衡的过程中,经济中的产出、投资、消费、就业会出现何种变化。本文发现经常账户的盈余会造成投资水平的下降,进而会影响到真实经济增长。如果我国能把国际储备转换成真实对外购买,则消费率和真实经济增长率都会得到提高。另外,人民币真实汇率年调整7%-10%对就业的影响是有限的。

Research on Relationship between Variation in China’s International Balance of Payments and Macro-economy

This paper studies what the output,consumption,investment and employment will changes when China’s international balance of payments surplus varies from 10% to 2%.This paper finds out that China’s current account surplus can result in a decline in investment and economic growth..If China successfully convert international reserves into a real foreign purchase,the domestic consumption and economic growth rate will be improved.In addition,the RMB exchange rate’s appreciation of 7-10% per year will bring limited impact on employment.