中国信贷市场利率与经济波动:2004-2010

本文基于VAR和VEC模型对我国信贷市场利率与经济波动的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:(1)投资、消费对于信贷市场利率的冲击处于负的脉冲响应,投资的响应更显著。投资、消费对信贷市场利率的影响非常有限。(2)投资波动对产出波动起主要作用;产出对投资波动和消费波动的影响程度有限;(3)信贷市场利率与投资、消费、产出之间存在长期均衡关系。基于这些分析结论,文章提出若干政策建议。

Credit Market Interest Rates and Economic Fluctuations in China:2004-2010

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between the credit market interest rates and economic fluctuations, based on VAR and VEC model. The result of the study indicates that: (1) Investment and consumption take a negative pulse response on shocks from credit market interest rate. Investment response is relatively obvious and significant. And the impact on credit market interest rates from investment and consumption is very limited. (2) Investment fluctuations play a major role on output cycles. Output cycles have an impact on investment and consumption fluctuations but to a limited extent. (3)Credit market interest rates and investment, consumption, output have a long-term dynamic equilibrium relationship.