作为货币政策调控目标的货币供应量和信贷规模

货币政策一般认为,作为金融数量指标的货币供应量在货币政策调控中占据着核心地位,而排斥另一重要金融数量指标——信贷规模的作用。本研究试图利用我国自1998年以来的经济金融数据,通过计量方法,比较货币供应量、信贷规模作为核心金融指标的适用性,发现:(1)信贷规模和货币供应量各自在不同意义上都是最稳定的,并且,各自与经济活动之间的关系一样规则而稳定,没有证据表明何者更具优势;(2)在同时引入货币供应量和信贷规模时,大大提高了对实体经济的解释能力;(3)货币供应量的变化依存于信贷规模的变化,表明信贷规模在我国经济金融中占据一定地位。这些结论对于理解我国货币政策传导机制是有意义的,表明政策调控时,应同时关注货币供应量和信贷规模这两个指标。

The Role of Money Stock and Credit Scale as Controllable Targets of Monetary Policy

Credit Scale should be taken as a crucial financial quantity indicator,given its important role in monetary policy function.Based on China's economic and financial data since 1998,the paper adopts econometric methods to compare the feasibility of money stock and credit scale as financial indicator.The research reaches conclusions as following:(1) Money stock and credit scale are both stable indicators.They are both regularly related to economic activities.(2) Adopting both money stock and credit scale into the VAR model perfects the model in terms of explanation ability.(3) Money stock is determined by credit scale,meaning that credit scale is at least of great significance.These conclusions are enlightening for China's monetary policy operation.