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解析人民币实际汇率的决定机制——基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的理论分析
引用本文:程锋.解析人民币实际汇率的决定机制——基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的理论分析[J].上海金融,2008(11).
作者姓名:程锋
作者单位:复旦大学国际金融系,上海,200433
摘    要:中国经济高速增长的背景同人民币实际汇率持续贬值的现实构成了实际汇率理论中的一对尖锐矛盾,明显违背基于供给角度的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应。本文所设定的实际汇率传导模型表明,该效应仅在人民币实际汇率的内部传导环节成立,无法在外部环节得以显现。通过对模型约束条件的修正,本文分析了形成这一现象的原因。

关 键 词:巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应  实际汇率  劳动生产率

Determination of RMB's Real Exchange Rate - A Theoretical Analysis Based on Balassa-Samuelson Theory
Cheng Feng.Determination of RMB''s Real Exchange Rate - A Theoretical Analysis Based on Balassa-Samuelson Theory[J].Shanghai Finance,2008(11).
Authors:Cheng Feng
Abstract:The rapid economic growth of China sharply contradicts with large devaluation of RMB's real ex- change rate. The fact obviously violates the forecast of Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis. The article conducts an empirical study to test Balassa-Samuelson (BS) hypothesis by introducing a three-step-through model. It founds out that in China, there is no positive long-run relationship between real exchange rate and relative prices of non-traded goods.
Keywords:Balassa-Samuelson Effect  Real Exchange Rate  Productivity
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