经济变量对国债市场的动态影响——基于市场分割的比较研究

本文从我国国债市场分割的实际出发,利用基于VAR系统的脉冲响应函数与方差分解技术实证检验了经济变量对交易所国债市场与银行间国债市场的短期动态影响。结论表明国债指数收益率对CPI指标的冲击反应呈负相关关系,我国国债投资者对于通货膨胀风险的补偿要求较高;对来自股票市场波动冲击的反应较大,跷跷板效应明显,市场投机风险较大。研究发现,CPI变量虽然是影响交易所国债价格波动的第一大因素,然而在银行间国债市场,排在第一位的却是股市收益率变量。两个市场对经济变量冲击的反应存在的差异之处体现了国债市场分割的现状。

The Dynamic Effect of Economic Variables on the Government Bond Market--The Comparative Study Based on Market Segmentation

This paper starts from the reality of the market segmentation,empirically analyzes the short-term dynamic effect of economic variables on the government bond prices using the impulse response function and the variance decomposition technique based on the VAR system.The result shows that there is negative correlation between the government bond index yield and the CPI indicators.Investors demand high compensation for the inflation risk. The bond market responds strongly to the impact of stock market,suggesti...