|
|||||
|
|
| “J”曲线效应与中美贸易收支 | |
| 引用本文： | 宋兆晗,卜建明,杨晓森.“J”曲线效应与中美贸易收支[J].上海金融,2008,5(1):22-26. |
| 作者姓名： | 宋兆晗 卜建明 杨晓森 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 复旦大学,上海,200433 2. 上海理工大学,上海,200031 3. 辉南一中,吉林辉南,135100 |
| 摘 要： | 本文从实际汇率的角度研究了人民币实际汇率变动对中美贸易收支的短期和长期影响.实证分析的结果表明:人民币实际汇率和贸易收支之间存在长期协整关系;马歇尔-勒纳条件不能成立,即当前还不能通过人民币实际汇率来有效地调节中美贸易收支,也说明当前人民币兑美元的升值并不能有效地改善中美贸易顺差过大的局面;并证明了人民币实际汇率变动对中美贸易收支的影响存在"J"曲线效应. |
| 关 键 词： | 实际汇率 贸易收支 "J"曲线效应 曲线 效应 贸易收支 trade balance effect 顺差过大 中美贸易 改善 升值 兑美元 调节 条件 勒纳 马歇尔 协整关系 存在 结果 实证分析 影响 汇率变动 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-1428（2008）01-0022-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-12-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年12月19 |
"J" Curve effect and Sino-US trade balance |
|
| Song Zhaohan,Bu Jianming,Yang Xiaoseng."J" Curve effect and Sino-US trade balance[J].Shanghai Finance,2008,5(1):22-26. | |
| Authors: | Song Zhaohan Bu Jianming Yang Xiaoseng |
| Institution: | Song Zhaohan / Bu Jianming / Yang Xiaoseng |
| Abstract: | This paper has studied the short-term and long-term effect of RMB's real exchange rate on Sino-US trade balance. It comes to the conclusion that, first, the long-term co-integration between RMB's real exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance is founded; second, Marchall-Lerner condition can not hold, that is, Sino-US trade balance can't be regulated effectively through real exchange rate adjustment and the huge surplus can't be reduced substantially by current RMB appreciation; third, "J" curve is effective in terms of the influence of RMB's real exchange rate change on Sino-US trade balance. |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate Trade Balance "J" Curve Effect |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |