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中国金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证研究
引用本文:马智利,周翔宇.中国金融发展与产业结构升级关系的实证研究[J].上海金融,2008(2):18-21.
作者姓名:马智利  周翔宇
作者单位:重庆大学贸易与行政学院,重庆,400044
摘    要:本文在国内外研究成果的基础上,针对中国的金融发展与产业结构升级的关系问题,系统分析金融发展与产业结构转变的内在联系,采用中国1978~2006年反映金融发展和产业结构升级的指标数据,利用非平稳时间序列分析方法进行定量描述。结果表明,产业结构升级指标和金融发展指标相互之间存在着长期均衡关系,金融相关率和金融市场化率对非农产业产值比重的提高有正向促进作用,并且金融相关率对产业结构升级的影响要强于金融相关率指标。中国产业结构的变化具有自身的惯性,中国的产业结构升级与金融发展的长短期关系是不一致的。产业结构升级和金融市场化比率之间存在双向的因果关系,而产业结构升级与金融相关比率以及金融相关比率和金融市场化比率之间只有单向的因果关系。

关 键 词:金融发展  产业结构  金融相关比率  金融市场化比率
文章编号:1006-1428(2008)02-0018-04
修稿时间:2007年11月9日

An empirical study on the relationship between financial development and industrial structure upgrading in China
Ma Zhili,Zhou Xiangyu.An empirical study on the relationship between financial development and industrial structure upgrading in China[J].Shanghai Finance,2008(2):18-21.
Authors:Ma Zhili  Zhou Xiangyu
Institution:Ma Zhili Zhou Xiangyu
Abstract:Based on domestic and international research results,this paper intends to discover the intrinsic relationship between China's financial development and industrial structure upgrading.Applying non-stationary time series analysis,the paper analyzes relative historical data from 1978-2006.The result shows that industrial structure upgrading indices and financial development indices reach long-term equilibrium,and that high financial interrelations ratio and high financial marketization ratio will increase the percentage of non-agriculture industry in economy.It also shows that the short-term and long-term relations between industrial structure upgrading and financial development are inconsistent.There is bilateral Granger causality relation between industrial structure upgrading and financial marketization ratio,but this is not sustained in the reverse direction in relationship between industrial structure upgrading and financial interrelations ratio and between financial interrelations ratio and financial marketization ratio.
Keywords:Financial Development  Industrial Structure  Financial Interrelations Ratio  Financial Marketization Ratio
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