"投资-储蓄缺口"假说与中国经常账户失衡的持续性

本文梳理了解释美国经常账户失衡的各类假说,并以美国的情况为借鉴,提出了对中国经常账户失衡的几种解释思路.文章发现经常账户的实际水平与理论均衡水平的差值为稳定序列,但并不收敛于零,表明经常账户的失衡具有一定的持续性.然后通过设计两元选择模型对导致失衡的机制进行实证分析;结论发现"投资-储蓄缺口"假说得到了中国数据的支持,同时发现国民收入也是决定经常账户盈余或者赤字的关键变量.这说明我国经常账户的变化更多地内生于其特有的经济增长模式,对经常账户失衡状态的矫正需要内部经济结构的改革和理顺经济运行机制措施的配合.

"Investment-Saving Gap" Hypothesis and the Consistency of China's Current Account

The article reviews some explanatory hypotheses of the unbalance of US's current account, and pro- poses several explanations on the unbalance of China's current account. The article finds out that the difference between real level of current account and the theoretical equilibrium level is stable series, but doesn't converge to zero. This finding indicates the consistency of the unbalance of current account. The article then designs a binary choice model to empirically analyze the mechanism behind such unb...