资产配置中的投资时钟模型

投资时钟模型是将资产配置和行业策略同经济周期相联系的资产配置方法。经济周期划分为衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀四个阶段,各阶段都对应着收益表现超过一般市场的某一特定资产类别:债券、股票、大宗商品和现金。投资时钟模型还可以帮助资产配置的行业选择。在经济复苏阶段,投资于成长性的周期性行业;在过热阶段,投资于价值性的周期性行业;在滞胀时期,投资于价值型的防御性行业;在衰退时期,投资于成长性的防御性行业。

The Investment Clock Model in Asset Allocation

The investment clock model is an approach to connect asset allocation and industry strategy with business cycle.A business cycle has four phases:recession,recovery,overheat and stagflation.Each phase corresponds to one specific asset,which has over-the-average investment income:bonds,stock,commodity and cash.The investment clock model can also provide guidance when it comes to choosing industry.In the recovery phase,we should invest in growing cyclical industry,while in the overheat phase,we should invest i...