| 人民币外汇市场压力与央行外汇干预的经验估计 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓峰,陈萍,叶文娱.人民币外汇市场压力与央行外汇干预的经验估计[J].上海金融,2011(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓峰 陈萍 叶文娱 |
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| 作者单位： | 厦门大学金融系,福建厦门,361004 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然基金项目“基于行为金融理论的人民币汇率及央行干预策略研究”(项目编号:70873098)的阶段性研究成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用Weymark指数法估计了1994年来我国面临的外汇市场压力和央行外汇干预指数,实证结果显示1994年来人民币一直面临着升值压力,样本期间中央银行平均干预指数为0.97,说明我国央行实行的是强势干预政策以保持人民币汇率的稳定。利用人民币外汇市场压力指数对我国潜在货币危机的研究表明,2005年人民币汇率改革之后,人民币面临的外汇市场压力过度了,存在货币危机的可能性。
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| 关 键 词： | 外汇市场压力 外汇干预 货币危机 |
The RMB Exchange Market Pressure and the Empirical Estimation of Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Intervention |
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| Li Xiaofeng,Chen Ping,Ye Wenyu.The RMB Exchange Market Pressure and the Empirical Estimation of Central Bank's Foreign Exchange Intervention[J].Shanghai Finance,2011(1). |
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| Authors: | Li Xiaofeng Chen Ping Ye Wenyu |
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| Institution: | Li Xiaofeng/ Chen Ping/ Ye Wenyu |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,Weymark index is used to estimate exchange market pressure and exchange intervention index of RMB since 1994.The empirical results show that RMB has been faced with appreciation pressure since 1994,and the average intervention index of China's central bank is 0.97,indicating that central bank implemented strong intervention to keep RMB exchange rate stable.Using RMB exchange market pressure index to identify potential currency crisis,the research shows that since the reform of RMB exchange rat... |
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| Keywords: | Exchange Market Pressure Exchange Intervention Monetary Crisis |
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