资产价格波动形势下货币政策工具的宏观调控效应比较研究

本文通过构建VAR模型,识别资产价格对不同货币政策工具冲击的响应程度,发现各项贷款对于调控资产价格的效力最强,其次为货币供应量和利率政策。值得注意的是,贷款增长对于股价膨胀起到了重要支撑和推动作用,同时贷款少增对股价收缩效应也非常显著。本文强调,信贷数量调控对于平抑资产价格波动十分关键,选择性货币政策工具(Selective Credit Control)对于资产价格波动具有特殊调控效力。最后,本文提出了资产价格膨胀与资产价格收缩不同时期货币政策工具的搭配建议。

Comparison of Monetary Policy Tools in Regulation Effect under Asset Price Volatility

Asset price fluctuations have emerged as one of the most severe challenges facing central banks since 20th century. How to avoid out-of-control price volatility and building a matching monetary policy framework becomes a new research top with great value. By building a VAR model to identify the extent to which asset prices react to dif- ferent monetary policy tools, this paper finds out that bank credit is most powerful in regulating asset prices, while cur- rency supply and interest rates rank right after it. We also need to be aware that credit scale has significant impact on stock prices. Stable credit is critical to iron price fluctuations, and selective credit control has particularly strong power in regulation. Finally, the paper ends up with proposals on monetary policy tools matching different situations.