中国养老保险支出对消费的乘数效应研究——以城镇居民面板数据为例

在国际金融危机背景下,拉动国内消费需求在我国的经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用,然而这需要强有力的社会保障体系作为支撑。本文利用经典的消费函数模型并予以创新,运用全国各地区2000-2007年的面板数据,实证分析了我国社会保障支出对居民消费的影响。研究发现,社会保障方面的投入会对消费水平有着较大的乘数效应。因此,可以通过增加对社会保障的投入,稳定居民对于未来的安全预期,从而扩大消费需求,实现向内需驱动型的经济增长模式转变。我国将五项社会保险纳入2010年财政预算可以视为转变经济增长方式的一个好势头。

Empirical Research of the Relationship Between Government Endowment Insurance Expenditure and the Consumption——Take the Panel Data of Townsfolk for Example

The lack of consumption capability in China is extremely serious in the period of international financial crisis.How to stimulate consumption attracts much attention.Stimulating consumption plays an increasing important role in Chinese economy,but this requires integrated social security to support.This paper uses the classical model of consumption function and innovates it in some degree,and uses the panel data of 2000-2007 in all regions of our country to analyze empiricaliy the relation of China's social...