新农保对农民最优储蓄的挤出效应及其影响因素分析——基于两期代际扩展模型的应用

摘要：新型农村养老保险制度的实施和持续发展，不仅具有维护农村居民社会养老保险权益公平性的社会作用，还能起到刺激农村消费需求增加从而促进农村经济发展的经济作用。通过两期代际扩展型的应用，证明了新农保的实施对个体农户终身效用最大化下的最优储蓄存在挤出效应，其主要影响因素有：缴费年限、缴费比率、养老保险账户的增值保值能力和收入替代率等，并以此为基础，提出了完善新农保制度、促进其可持续发展的政策建议。

The Extrusion Effect of the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance to the optimal savings and it＇s affection factors—Based on the extension of TheIntergenerational Model for two periods

The implementation and sustainable development of the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance not only has the social function of maintaining the fairness rights of rural social endowment insurance, but also has the economic function of stimulating rural consumption so as to promote rural economic development. Through the application of The extension of the Intergenerational Model for two periods, proved that Implementation of the New Type of Rural Social Endowment Insurance has the extrusion effect to the optimal savings, and it＇ s key influencing factors are： capture expends fixed number of year, contribution rate, the ability of the Endowment insurance personal accounts to hold and rise it＇s value ,income replacement rate and so on. And basis on this to puts forward to some effective recommendations to perfect the new system and promote its sustainable develonm~nt.q_