从汇率制度视角看我国商业银行的流动性过剩

从汇率制度角度透视我国当前的商业银行流动性过剩现象，目的在于为经济金融的进一步开放提供理论依据和决策参考。本文通过对“三元悖论”理论的解读和1998～2006年各季度数据的实证检验，揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性，即在我国现行的；汇率制度下，外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了商业银行存差的扩大，造成金融系统乃至整个社会的流动性过剩。基于上述研究，作者提出了如下相关建议：完善我国汇率形成的市场机制，培育相对均衡汇率；深化我国外汇管理体制改革，有序开放资本市场；汇率制度改革要与其他政策改革协调配合。

Excessive Liquidity in Our Commercial Banks Viewed from the Perspective of Exchange Rate

The purpose of viewing excessive liquidity in our commercial banks from the perspective of exchange rate is to provide a theoretical foundation and decision-making reference for the further opening of our economy and finance. In this paper, the theory of trilemma is studied and quarterly data from 1998-2006 are testified empirically. It is revealed that there is close connection between excessive banking liquidity and exchange rate system. Under the prevailing exchange system, the ever expanding foreign exchange reserve contributes directly to widening the gap between deposit and loans of commercial banks, leading to excessive liquidity in financial sector and the society as a whole. Based on this analysis, it is proposed that we should improve the market mechanism of exchange rate formation, cultivate a balanced exchange rate, deepen the reform of foreign exchange control, open the capital market orderly and coordinate exchange rate reform with policy reform.